Here is an updated version of a post I’ve been creating for several years.
The 2015 Admissions brochures for Engineering and other programs have recently been uploaded. We have continued to include a table showing admission probabilities (“chances”) for different programs and grade ranges. It seems that many people find it useful for getting a realistic impression of their chances at admission, so that they can plan accordingly. In the graphic below is a copy of the latest version. This is based on the 2014 results and as usual we caution that 2015 may be different, since it all depends on the competition level (which is unknown in advance). In 2014 the level of competition went up quite a bit, as illustrated in a previous post. Maybe it will go down in 2015, since we know that’s the general direction of the demographics in Ontario, but we’ll see.
For convenience and readability, we lump the grades into ranges in this table. Some people find the big jumps in probability between the different grade ranges to be difficult to interpret, so I have been generating graphs that provide interpolations between the various grades in finer detail. As always, the grades shown here are the raw, unadjusted averages of the Grade 12 required courses (or equivalents).
For last year’s graph I used a cubic spline interpolation technique (with linear endpoints), which is one popular method for finding values between sparse data points. I liked that result, so I used the same method for this year (and it was easy to use last year’s MathCAD file). As before, I assumed that the probability in the table above corresponds to the mid-point of the grade range, and that there is zero probability below 80%, and 100% with an average grade of 100%. As before, I used MathCAD for the number crunching (here is a nice description, for those that might be interested). And below is the result:
Again this year, one of the graphs has a bit of an over-prediction at the upper end, showing a greater than 100% probability (which of course is not physically possible). Fixing that would require trying some different interpolation methods, but it’s not worth the effort since it’s just an approximation (there is no point in getting more precision in an imprecise estimate). Otherwise, it looks pretty good.
As usual, these are rough estimates and not guarantees of any sort. It’s possible to have a 99% average and not get admitted if, for example, you don’t submit a required document or don’t meet the English language proficiency requirements. It’s also possible that changes in competition levels will move a program from one line to another (either left or right) in the upcoming cycle. But it gives some guidance about what the expectations might be for various programs, and something to work towards.