The 2017 Admissions brochures for Engineering and other programs have recently been uploaded. We have continued to include a table showing admission probabilities (“chances”) for different programs and grade ranges. Many people find it useful for getting a realistic impression of their chances at admission, and then they can plan accordingly. The online version of this table can be found here. This is based on the 2016 results and as usual we caution that 2017 may be different, since it all depends on the competition level (which is unknown in advance).
One difference this year: I’m going to break the chances data up into two categories, “Visa” (or study permit) applicants, and “Canadians and Permanent Residents” applicants. The tables mentioned above lump everyone together, but looking back at the last year or two it seems like it may be too pessimistic for Canadians and overly-optimistic for Visa applicants, as we’ll see below.For convenience and readability, we lump the grades into ranges in this table. Some people find the big jumps in probability between the different grade ranges to be difficult to understand or interpret, so for several years I have been generating graphs that provide interpolations between the various grades in finer detail (see the end of the post for methodology, if interested). As usual, the grades shown here are the raw, unadjusted averages of the Grade 12 required courses (or equivalents), not including any other factors such as scores for extracurriculars, work experience, or awards.
Canadians and Permanent Residents
We have around 1,350 spaces reserved in Engineering for applicants who are Canadians or Permanent Residents of Canada. For this group, the chances by program are shown in the following graph.
Looking at the results we can make some comments. The various programs were chosen to be lumped together because their chances are very similar. The green and blue lines look pretty good for an interpolation. The red line has an odd little blip around 87%, which is an artifact of the way cubic splines work; in reality having an 87% average is not an advantage over a 90%.
Clearly some programs like Biomedical and Software are very competitive (lots of applicants for a small number of spaces). Other programs have more spaces and a bit fewer applicants per space, so not quite so competitive. Level of competition has nothing to do with quality or career prospects, it’s just a matter of supply and demand for spaces.
As usual, these are rough estimates and not guarantees of any sort. It’s possible to have a 99% average and not get admitted if, for example, you don’t submit an Admission Information Form or other required document, or don’t meet the English language proficiency requirements. It’s also possible that changes in competition levels will move a certain program from one line to another (either left or right) in the upcoming admissions competition.
Study Permit Applicants
We only have around 220 available spaces in Engineering for non-Canadians, and last year over 3,000 applicants for those spaces. So the competition is pretty intense for this group of applicants, and it takes a very strong application to get an offer. These applicants are generally considered as a whole, not so much on a program by program basis, and so there is only one line in this graph.
For applicants not in a system using percentage grades, what is a 95%+? It’s difficult to say exactly, but for IB students the grades should be pretty much all 6’s and 7’s. For the British curriculum, the A level grades (predicted or actual) should be all A’s or better (A*).
For the past few years I have used a cubic spline interpolation technique (with linear endpoints), which is one popular method for finding values between sparse data points. I like the results, so I continue to use the same method. As before, I assumed that the probability in the table corresponds to the mid-point of the grade range, and that there is zero probability below 80%, and 100% with an average grade of 100%. As before, I used MathCAD for the number crunching (here is a nice description, for those that might be interested in more details).