The 2014 Admissions brochures for Engineering and other programs have recently been uploaded. Last year, for the first time, we included a table showing admission probabilities (“chances”) for different programs and grade ranges. It seemed to be well-received and many people found it to be useful, so we revised and updated a new one for 2014. Below is a copy of it (sorry about the image quality). This is based on the 2013 results and as usual we caution that 2014 may be different, since it all depends on the competition level (which is unknown in advance).
Some people find the big jumps in probability between the different grade ranges to be troubling, so last year I made a graph that interpolates between the various grades in finer detail.
Continuing that tradition, I took this more recent data and did some new interpolations. Last year I used a piecewise continuous linear interpolation method. For variety, this year I used a cubic spline interpolation technique (with linear endpoints), which is another popular method for finding values between sparse data points. As before, I assumed that the probability in the table above corresponds to the mid-point of the grade range, and that there is zero probability below 80%, and 100% with an average grade of 100%. It’s a little more complicated to implement in Excel, so I used MathCAD for the actual number crunching (here is a nice description, for those that might be interested). And here is the result:
One of the graphs is a little “wonky” at the upper end, showing a greater than 100% probability (which of course is not physically possible). Fixing that would probably require a different interpolation method, but it’s not worth the effort since it’s just an approximation anyways. (Part of an engineer’s job is figuring out where to best use your limited time and resources.) Otherwise, it looks pretty good.
As usual, these are rough estimates and not guarantees of any sort. It’s possible to have a 99% average and not get admitted if, for example, you don’t submit a required document. It’s also possible that changes in competition levels will move a program from one line to another (either left or right) in the upcoming cycle. But it gives some guidance about what the expectations might be for various programs, and something to work towards.