# Chances for 2014

The 2014 Admissions brochures for Engineering and other programs have recently been uploaded.  Last year, for the first time, we included a table showing admission probabilities (“chances”) for different programs and grade ranges.  It seemed to be well-received and many people found it to be useful, so we revised and updated a new one for 2014.  Below is a copy of it (sorry about the image quality).  This is based on the 2013 results and as usual we caution that 2014 may be different, since it all depends on the competition level (which is unknown in advance).

Some people find the big jumps in probability between the different grade ranges to be troubling, so last year I made a graph that interpolates between the various grades in finer detail.

Continuing that tradition, I took this more recent data and did some new interpolations.  Last year I used a piecewise continuous linear interpolation method.  For variety, this year I used a cubic spline interpolation technique (with linear endpoints), which is another popular method for finding values between sparse data points.  As before, I assumed that the probability in the table above corresponds to the mid-point of the grade range, and that there is zero probability below 80%, and 100% with an average grade of 100%.  It’s a little more complicated to implement in Excel, so I used MathCAD for the actual number crunching (here is a nice description, for those that might be interested).  And here is the result:

One of the graphs is a little “wonky” at the upper end, showing a greater than 100% probability (which of course is not physically possible).  Fixing that would probably require a different interpolation method, but it’s not worth the effort since it’s just an approximation anyways.  (Part of an engineer’s job is figuring out where to best use your limited time and resources.)  Otherwise, it looks pretty good.

As usual, these are rough estimates and not guarantees of any sort.  It’s possible to have a 99% average and not get admitted if, for example, you don’t submit a required document.  It’s also possible that changes in competition levels will move a program from one line to another (either left or right) in the upcoming cycle.  But it gives some guidance about what the expectations might be for various programs, and something to work towards.

## 170 thoughts on “Chances for 2014”

1. Austin

hello sir

Do you gets more applicants for civil engineering or mechanical engineering?

• More for mechanical, but there are fewer available spaces in civil, so the level of competition is about the same.

2. Austin

depending on how many applicants you guy have now and judging by their average what do you think the minimum average you need for civil and mechanical engineering

• It’s impossible to say, but the chances are probably similar to last year.

3. anon

Hello,

Do you have any statistics on how many applications you received in 2013 for engineering and how many of those applicants were accepted?

Thank you!

• That’s called “selectivity“. I don’t have exact figures at hand, but it was probably in the range of 0.35 to 0.39 last year.

4. Ali Javed

Hi sir, I have already been admitted to mechanical Engineering for fall, I was just wondering what stream is better. 4 or 8?, what are the pros and cons of both?

Thanks

• I hope to make a post on this topic, probably in May.

5. Amit

Hello sir,
I am Amit from Bangladesh.I m completing A levels this June.I scored Chemistry(82%-A),Maths(95%=A),Physics(82%=A) Bio(84%) in my Advanced Subsidary.My predicted results will be like 3A*1A.I my IGCE I scores 6A* and a B in English.IELTS 7.5.what do you think are my chances of getting in

• Those are good results, but it’s hard to say since there are only a very limited number of visa student spaces available, so competition can be quite severe.

• Amit

How many seats are there for international engineering students?And how many international students apply to waterloo each year?What will be the percentage of my results according to waterloo admission percentages?What is my chance I have with this result?please just make a rough eatimate with your experience.I am so passionate to learn at waterloo.

• There are about 200 spaces for visa students in engineering, and about 2000 applications. I can’t do the conversions for everyone, but needless to say if you are scoring the top grades that will be very good.

• Alyssa

What is the chance of getting in for international student with 91 average?

• It’s impossible to say for sure. Maybe “fair”?

6. Kelly Ryan

• In transfer cases we’re more interested in the highest level achieved, and we’ll look at overall performance as well as individual course grades, so we will decide which courses are of most importance. Anyways, a “B” in a university-level course is better than an “A” in a high school equivalent course.

• kellyrycat26

Do you mean that a university B is better than a high school A (85-90) or a high school A- (80-85)?

• University “B” >= high school “A”

7. Kelly Ryan

At my university, a 12 is the highest mark you can get which represents a mark between 90 to 100 percent. Could you please tell me what mark you would assign to a student’s average if you see a 12 because, if I earned a 98%, I am concerned that you may count it as a 90%. The same goes for a rating of 11 which is represents a mark between 85-89 %. What mark would you assign for that person? Thanks.

• I don’t recall the specifics of the 12 point scale, but in many cases we use something around the mid-range of the equivalent percentage.

8. kellyrycat26

Could you please tell us what average a transfer student needs to maintain overall and what average we need to maintain in each course if we receive an offer? Right now, I am concerned about a 2nd year Biology course that I am taking (that is not a prerequisite for Waterloo Eng) where I have a 73% average. I am concerned that, if I receive an offer, the offer may be rescinded because of this one course that I am struggling with. Thanks.

• I’m not sure what we usually put on those offer conditions, but it’s usually not an issue unless there is a failure.

9. Jimmy

Hi Sir
i was wondering if you can tell me whats more competitive this year civil or electrical

• Probably civil, by a small margin.

10. SS

Hello Sir, I just applied for Mechanical (Civil and Electrical as second choices). Does UW consider Sat 2 Subject test scores? I have 700+ on Chemistry and Physics. Are those good Sat 2 scores? For Math I have an “A” in my A-Levels under Cambridge. Thanks.

• SAT 2 subject scores are useful to send in if you have them. We would normally like to see 700 to 800 in the math or science SATs.

11. Amit

Is it a problem to have completed A levels in more than 2years(Alevels are generally taken over 2 years)?I have not repeated any subjects.is somone put in automatic rejection if he had taken more than 2 years or only grades matter?

• No, the time period doesn’t matter much to us, unless it’s more than 3 years.

12. Rob

Currently I’m in the IB programme in Canada. I am currently sitting at predicteds of;
Calculus: 95
English: 80
Chemistry: 93
Earth and science: 90
Physics: 93
Avg: 91.5
Currently the only problems I’m really facing is my english mark bringing me down which is probably extremely common for you guys.
How do I fair against the competition in May for electrical engineering?

• Good grades, but I can’t really give individual opinions.

13. Jason

Hello Sir

I applied for geological engineering and put environmental engineering as my second choice. I was wondering if you could tell me how many spots are left for each program.

Thanks you

• About half the spots are open in all programs, so that would be about 12 in geological and 27 in environmental.

14. Rahul

Hello sir, I would like to know when do international students receive a decision about their application?I have sent all my documents and it reached uni within March 6.

• The final round of decisions will be out in early May for everyone.

15. Ann

For final admission average for alberta students, do you take the higher of class and blended diploma marks for all subjects? on the requirements page, it says that for English 30, you consider blended class and diploma class

• For English it’s the blended class & exam mark. For the other required courses it’s the class or blended mark, whichever is higher.

16. WaterlooHopefulEngineer

My top 6 average is 87.5 and according to the chance graph, I have a 30% chance getting accepted into Mechatronics and 58% chance of getting into Electrical Engineering. Are these Chance calculations working accurately as predicted this year because I am very worried.

• Those are based on last year. Since application numbers are up a bit this year, the chances might be slightly lower.

• GAINS

so, since this curve is just for admission averages not including the AIF, where is this chance coming from, like is this “chance” arising from AIF form. My AIF form is very strong, I worked two jobs, did valuable and interesting extra curricular activities, done well in lots of competitions and science olympics. But, my average is 87.5 because of my chemistry mark dragging my average down. I also am in IB. I have analyzed lots of statistics showing that people’s averages usually goes down from February because of more content, more evaluations, and more chances to decrease a good mark. My average in February was 83 for engineering and i worked tirelessly to bring it to 87 and I am working now for my IB exams in may. I go to Bayview IB school. My friends in Victoria Park IB go through the same pain students in my school do. It is weird, because in private school provided IB programs, they are having it much easier in my opinion, and on average, my school and Victoria Park score much higher on Waterloo competitions etc. So, in my particular case, according to last year’s statistics i had 28% chance of getting into Mechatronics. I will assume this year though I have 25% chance because of slightly increased competition. Where is this 25% probability coming from, is it for people like me because people in Academic with 87 average would have relatively lower chance than me?

• The “chance” arises because of different AIF scores, English language test requirements, preference for students in enhanced programs, repeated course penalties, and sometimes the school adjustment factors. For all of these reasons, some students with an 87% average might get an offer, while some might not.

17. Rakesh

how is the competition for engineering management?
how would you describe the chances for someone who has an 85 avg

• Like most programs, competition for Management Engineering is up this year. The Chances post is the only good data we have at this time.

18. Claire

I got a \$1,000 scholarship from early admission. My average went up to a 90%+ for my term 3 transcript, which I sent in already. Can I still get the \$2,000 scholarship when final scholarships are made in May or was it based upon average at time of admission?

• Scholarships are re-assessed when final grades are submitted, so you can possibly get a higher value at that point.

19. Rpras

As of now, according to the demand for seats are the chances about the same as the graph or like you said have they moved left or right?

• It now seems that the lines are all shifted right by about 1%.